We called it in 2022.
Can we do it again?
→ Supercomputer?
More like super strategists
When ESPN FC picked up our 2022 forecast that Argentina would win the World Cup on penalties, they called it the work of a “supercomputer.”
We’ll take that as a compliment.
But the reality is simpler:
A team of BCA Research strategists and researchers applied the same data-driven framework we use to analyze markets and the global economy—this time to football.
It worked.
Our forecast for the
2026 World Cup winner
drops in just days.
- Days
- Hours
- Minutes
- Seconds
How it Started
What began in 2018 as a collaboration between macro strategists and football obsessives has become a BCA tradition.
In 2022, we predicted Argentina winning the World Cup, on penalties.
Now we’re back with a 2026 model built using the same blend of quantitative analysis, geopolitical insight, and narrative-driven research we apply to global markets every day.
Football rules the world.
With more than 3.5 billion fans, football is the most global stage on the planet. It reflects power, shapes culture, and commands attention across borders like nothing else.
It’s where politics, economics, identity, and globalization collide in real time.
Which makes it the perfect obsession for macro strategists who love the game.
The 2022 results.
We didn’t just make a prediction—we modeled the tournament. From Argentina lifting the trophy to the exact path they took, our framework delivered.
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Argentina to win on penalties
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11 of 16 knockout teams predicted
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54% group-stage accuracy
Same process. Different playing field.
We apply our macro framework to football—forecasting who advances, then who survives when pressure is highest.
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Step 1 – Group Stage:
Model team strength, structure, and momentum to predict who advances.
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Step 2 – Knockout Stage:
Stress-test those teams under pressure—where tactics, experience, and team cohesion decide who wins.
Football Is a
Macro Story.
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Football doesn’t just reflect the world.
It reveals it.
The same forces that shape economies - wealth, demographics, institutions, and incentives - also shape what happens on the pitch. Success isn’t random. It follows structure.
The World Cup is a compressed version of the global system:
Talent flows across borders
Economic power influences outcomes
Institutions are tested under pressure
Politics and identity play out in real time
At BCA Research, we study how complex systems behave under uncertainty. The World Cup is no different.
It’s not just a tournament.
It’s macro—played out in 90 minutes.
Meet the Team Behind the Forecast
Macro strategists. Researchers. Football obsessives.
The authors and contributors behind The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts combine global market expertise with deep knowledge of the world’s game.
Main authors:
Jeremie Peloso
Author
Robert Timper
Author
Marko Papic
Contributor
Juan Correa
Contributor
The rest of the team:
Jason Glazer
Senior Vice-President, Sales
Artem Sakhbiev
Strategist
Max Malak
Senior Analyst
Armen Hamazaspyan
Research Analyst
Hadi Elzein
Research Analyst
Jose Yanes
Research Analyst
Menglin Ji
Research Analyst
Julian Coy
Research Associate
Stay Ahead of the Game
Follow @BCAResearch on X and LinkedIn for timely insights, expert commentary, and updates.
Come for the Football. Stay for the Macro.