Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from 5 percent to 3 percent should be celebrated as much as if it fell from 3 percent to 1 percent. And the unemployment rate rising from 5 to 5.5 percent should cause no more concern than if it rose from 4.5 to 5 percent.

But such linear-thinking is wrong. Our non-linear world has ‘phase-transitions’ that cause some changes to have very little effect while others to have a massive effect. Cooling water from 3 degrees to 1 degree has very little effect. But cooling water from 1 degree to -1 degree has a massive effect. It turns into ice.