Global growth has firmed over the past few months, with US consumption remaining resilient, Chinese activity data surprising on the upside, and tentative signs of hope emerging from the latest ZEW survey in Europe. The global economy will stay buoyant over the next few quarters but will then sour as the lagged effects of higher interest rates and tighter bank lending standards work their way through the system, ultimately culminating in a recession in the second half of 2024.