Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente,...

We remain tactically overweight equities but are preparing to transition to equal weight once the S&P 500 reaches 4,500. Although the index may well peak above our target, we do not expect the rally...

Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from 5 percent to 3 percent should be celebrated as much as if it fell from 3 percent to 1...

Chinese stocks and the yuan will continue drifting lower. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates in China. There is potential for a further decline in commodity prices, EM risk assets and global...

US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and...

Greedflation may have piqued the interest of financial commentators, policymakers and politicians, but it is not the root cause of high inflation. However, the policy responses to a belief in...

Artificial intelligence (AI) is developing exponentially, and its impact on society and the economy could be comparable to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. However, there are also...

China's economic outlook is uncertain, with the pandemic aggravating long-standing structural issues and policymakers focused on managing downside risks. Professor M expects a subdued recovery in the...

Grain prices are expected to fall by 10% in 2023, due to the dissipation of war-related price shocks to fertilizer markets and increased production in major grain-producing countries. This will...

Inflation expectations are based on the past ten years of experience, and they will remain anchored if inflation remains low. Central banks must pull current inflation sharply lower to maintain this...