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BCA Insights

BCA Research’s mission is to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment decisions. One way we do this is by delivering forecasts and leading-edge analysis of all the major asset classes and economies. Gain insight into our independent global macro research through these complimentary reports

27 June 2023

So Much For Détente?

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente,...

20 June 2023

So Far, So Good On The Road To 4,500

We remain tactically overweight equities but are preparing to transition to equal weight once the S&P 500 reaches 4,500. Although the index may well peak above our target, we do not expect the rally...

13 June 2023

Inflation And Jobs On A Non-Linear Collision Course

Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from 5 percent to 3 percent should be celebrated as much as if it fell from 3 percent to 1...

06 June 2023

IS China In A Liquidity Trap?

Chinese stocks and the yuan will continue drifting lower. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates in China. There is potential for a further decline in commodity prices, EM risk assets and global...

30 May 2023

A Good Entry Point To Get Long Duration

US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and...

23 May 2023

Greedflation: Fad, Fact, or Fiction

Greedflation may have piqued the interest of financial commentators, policymakers and politicians, but it is not the root cause of high inflation. However, the policy responses to a belief in...

16 May 2023

ChatGPT And The Curse Of The Second Law

Artificial intelligence (AI) is developing exponentially, and its impact on society and the economy could be comparable to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. However, there are also...

10 May 2023

A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

Investors Are Not Optimistic About China’s Long-Term Growth

China's economic outlook is uncertain, with the pandemic aggravating long-standing structural issues and policymakers focused on managing downside risks. Professor M expects a subdued recovery in the...

03 May 2023

Food-Price Inflation To Moderate

Weaker fertilizer prices, lower grain prices

Grain prices are expected to fall by 10% in 2023, due to the dissipation of war-related price shocks to fertilizer markets and increased production in major grain-producing countries. This will...

26 April 2023

Why Is Expected Inflation So Low? 4.26.2023

Expected inflation is low because historic inflation is still low

Inflation expectations are based on the past ten years of experience, and they will remain anchored if inflation remains low. Central banks must pull current inflation sharply lower to maintain this...

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