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Macro Insights

BCA Research’s mission is to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment decisions. One way we do this is by delivering forecasts and leading-edge analysis of all the major asset classes and economies. Gain insight into our independent global macro research through these complimentary reports

26 April 2023

Why Is Expected Inflation So Low? 4.26.2023

Expected inflation is low because historic inflation is still low

Inflation expectations are based on the past ten years of experience, and they will remain anchored if inflation remains low. Central banks must pull current inflation sharply lower to maintain this...

19 April 2023

Expectations Of A US Dollar Demise Are Premature

Commodity Prices Have Been Soft Despite A Weak US Dollar

The U.S. dollar has been weak in recent months, but it may be about to rebound. The dollar has depreciated against low-yielding currencies like the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. However, it...

17 April 2023

Gulliver In The Land Of Giants: Revisiting Market Concentration And Growth Vs Value

Equity market concentration has increased on the heels of the YTD rally. The “top 20” stocks are driving most of the S&P’s YTD performance, while remaining stocks are delivering only pedestrian...

13 April 2023

Macro Investors Are About To Make A Huge Mistake

US inflation is likely to fall significantly during the rest of the year, even as the unemployment rate remains near record-low levels. Equity investors will applaud this outcome because, to them, it...

01 March 2023

China’s $100 Trillion Housing Bubble Reaches Its Limit

The Chinese government will ensure that its housing market adjustment does not come from a collapse in home prices, but from a reduction in housing development and construction activity. Yet too...

24 February 2023

The Fed’s Low Neutral Rate View: Fact Or Folly?

The possibility that the Fed could cut interest rates later this year if inflation falls more than they expect has caused a renewed focus by market participants on the Fed’s neutral rate views. Owing...

14 January 2023

All-Weather Investing: The Effect Of Inflation And Growth On Returns

We measure the effects of inflation and growth cycles on the returns of various individual assets. We also explore how the performance of an equity and bond portfolio changes when several...

01 December 2022

The Only Thing Missing Is An Asteroid: Unprecedented Uncertainty In Commodities

We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl,...

01 December 2022

Lags and Consequences

As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global...

21 November 2022

The Labor Market is Cooling

Nonfarm payrolls delivered yet another strong showing in October, rising by a robust +261k on the month. However, looking beyond the headline figure we are now finally starting to detect some signs...