Inflation expectations are based on the past ten years of experience, and they will remain anchored if inflation remains low. Central banks must pull current inflation sharply lower to maintain this...

The U.S. dollar has been weak in recent months, but it may be about to rebound. The dollar has depreciated against low-yielding currencies like the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen. However, it...

Equity market concentration has increased on the heels of the YTD rally. The “top 20” stocks are driving most of the S&P’s YTD performance, while remaining stocks are delivering only pedestrian...

US inflation is likely to fall significantly during the rest of the year, even as the unemployment rate remains near record-low levels. Equity investors will applaud this outcome because, to them, it...

The Chinese government will ensure that its housing market adjustment does not come from a collapse in home prices, but from a reduction in housing development and construction activity. Yet too...

The possibility that the Fed could cut interest rates later this year if inflation falls more than they expect has caused a renewed focus by market participants on the Fed’s neutral rate views. Owing...

We measure the effects of inflation and growth cycles on the returns of various individual assets. We also explore how the performance of an equity and bond portfolio changes when several...

We are revising our 4Q22 Brent forecast to $90/bbl, expecting December front-line Brent to average $85/bbl. On the back of this early weakness, we are lowering our 2023 forecast slightly to $115/bbl,...

As the FOMC explicitly acknowledged this week, monetary policy operates with substantial lags. We see the risks to stocks as tilted to the upside over the next 6 months but are neutral on global...

Nonfarm payrolls delivered yet another strong showing in October, rising by a robust +261k on the month. However, looking beyond the headline figure we are now finally starting to detect some signs...