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Macro Insights

BCA Research’s mission is to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment decisions. One way we do this is by delivering forecasts and leading-edge analysis of all the major asset classes and economies. Gain insight into our independent global macro research through these complimentary reports

14 June 2023

Unlocking Promising Opportunities In Private Credit: A Profitable Time To Lend

We measure the effects of inflation and growth cycles on the returns of various individual assets. We also explore how the performance of an equity and bond portfolio changes when several...

13 June 2023

Inflation And Jobs On A Non-Linear Collision Course

Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from 5 percent to 3 percent should be celebrated as much as if it fell from 3 percent to 1...

06 June 2023

IS China In A Liquidity Trap?

Chinese stocks and the yuan will continue drifting lower. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates in China. There is potential for a further decline in commodity prices, EM risk assets and global...

30 May 2023

A Good Entry Point To Get Long Duration

US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and...

24 May 2023

The Debt Ceiling Game Is Parent-Child With A Bad Nash Equilibrium

In game theoretical terms, the debt ceiling standoff is the Parent-Child game. The ‘Child’ is the Democrats who can cut spending a lot (be very good), cut spending a little (be quite good), or not...

23 May 2023

Greedflation: Fad, Fact, or Fiction

Greedflation may have piqued the interest of financial commentators, policymakers and politicians, but it is not the root cause of high inflation. However, the policy responses to a belief in...

19 May 2023

Greedflation: Fad, Fact Or Fiction?

The notion that companies have been persistently hiking prices faster than costs are increasing – so-called “greedflation” – is not clearly evident in the US, euro area and UK. The US had a “whiff of...

16 May 2023

ChatGPT And The Curse Of The Second Law

Artificial intelligence (AI) is developing exponentially, and its impact on society and the economy could be comparable to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. However, there are also...

10 May 2023

A Conversation With A Chinese Pundit

Investors Are Not Optimistic About China’s Long-Term Growth

China's economic outlook is uncertain, with the pandemic aggravating long-standing structural issues and policymakers focused on managing downside risks. Professor M expects a subdued recovery in the...

03 May 2023

Food-Price Inflation To Moderate

Weaker fertilizer prices, lower grain prices

Grain prices are expected to fall by 10% in 2023, due to the dissipation of war-related price shocks to fertilizer markets and increased production in major grain-producing countries. This will...