We measure the effects of inflation and growth cycles on the returns of various individual assets. We also explore how the performance of an equity and bond portfolio changes when several...

Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from 5 percent to 3 percent should be celebrated as much as if it fell from 3 percent to 1...

Chinese stocks and the yuan will continue drifting lower. Continue receiving 10-year swap rates in China. There is potential for a further decline in commodity prices, EM risk assets and global...

US bond investors should increase portfolio duration from “at benchmark” to “above benchmark” on a cyclical (6-12 month) investment horizon. We also recommend exiting Treasury curve flatteners and...

In game theoretical terms, the debt ceiling standoff is the Parent-Child game. The ‘Child’ is the Democrats who can cut spending a lot (be very good), cut spending a little (be quite good), or not...

Greedflation may have piqued the interest of financial commentators, policymakers and politicians, but it is not the root cause of high inflation. However, the policy responses to a belief in...

The notion that companies have been persistently hiking prices faster than costs are increasing – so-called “greedflation” – is not clearly evident in the US, euro area and UK. The US had a “whiff of...

Artificial intelligence (AI) is developing exponentially, and its impact on society and the economy could be comparable to the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions. However, there are also...

China's economic outlook is uncertain, with the pandemic aggravating long-standing structural issues and policymakers focused on managing downside risks. Professor M expects a subdued recovery in the...

Grain prices are expected to fall by 10% in 2023, due to the dissipation of war-related price shocks to fertilizer markets and increased production in major grain-producing countries. This will...