07 September 2023
Global Growth: Failing Engines
If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Europe is heading into a recession. Euro area stocks are set to...
06 September 2023
From Southeast Asia To Spain
The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions,...
01 September 2023
Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided
A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter US monetary policy is slowly being felt. The economies of Europe and China are even more of concern,...
21 August 2023
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?
Yes, the 2024 election is relevant but not necessarily in the way that many think. It is not American democracy that is at risk so much as fiscal stability and global trade. Geopolitical risk and...
17 August 2023
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?
The 2024 election is relevant but not necessarily in the way that many think. It is not American democracy that is at risk so much as fiscal stability and global trade. Geopolitical risk and policy...
17 August 2023
China: Diagnosing Malaise
Even though many commentators use notions like debt deflation, balance sheet recession, and liquidity trap interchangeably, they are not identical. In a balance sheet recession, households and...
14 August 2023
The Problem With European Earnings
Despite a stabilization in real economic activity, Eurozone nominal GDP growth will slow. European earnings have additional downside and EPS growth is more leveraged to nominal activity than real GDP.
03 August 2023
Russian Oil Embargo?
Markets will start discounting a larger cut to Russian crude oil output going into 4Q23. How the endgame of Ukraine’s war unfolds and US presidential elections, which Russia will actively seek to...
01 August 2023
Is There A Bullish Case For EM ex-China?
The strong performance of EM ex-China equities since late last year has been largely due to the significant rallies in (1) Korean and Taiwanese equities because of the large weights of semi stocks;...
25 July 2023
China’s Stimulus: Necessary But Not Sufficient
The latest Politburo meeting has provided little visibility on stimulus from the Chinese government. Its statement was short on details. On a positive note, the announcement did not contain the...
