12 October 2023
Chinese Automakers: Surging Exports, Mediocre Domestic Sales
Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Consumer willingness to spend on automobiles will remain downbeat at least into next year. Yet, Chinese auto...
09 October 2023
All You Ever Wanted To Know About Excess Savings But Were Afraid To Ask
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the household savings rate series sharply lower in its quinquennial comprehensive data update. Our estimate is more conservative than it previously appeared,...
09 October 2023
Hamas’s Attack On Israel Threatens Higher Oil Prices
It is too early to determine whether Iran and its client Hezbollah helped plan and execute Hamas’s attacks on Israel over the weekend, as media reports declaim. 1 However, given the long-standing...
09 October 2023
Style Chart Pack: The One About Utilities, Materials, And Zombies Among Us
At of the end of September, the S&P 500 was down for two straight months, as the Troika of surging rates, energy prices, and a stronger dollar weighed on performance. Interest rate-sensitive sectors...
05 October 2023
Can India Replace China As A Driver Of Global Growth?
While China’s rapid expansion of the past decades helped lift the overall global growth rate, the country’s very large and persistent current account surpluses have adversely affected and shaved the...
29 September 2023
Canada: Canary In The Coal Mine?
Canadian economic growth slowed significantly in Q2, raising the question of whether one of the most indebted economies in the world is buckling under the weight of tight monetary policy. Contrary...
18 September 2023
Are Higher Interest Rates Hurting Corporate Balance Sheets?
The Fed will stand pat at this week’s FOMC meeting. It will also lower its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for 2023. The Fed’s 2023 interest rate forecasts will be revised down, a dovish...
14 September 2023
Currencies And Commodities: Hedging Upside Risks
ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted how much upside in commodity prices was a risk to both their economic growth and inflation projections. Commodity supply has become a far more important...
12 September 2023
Probabilities For The US Primary Election
Presidents Biden and Trump are all but locked into their party’s nominations for the 2024 election. A competitive primary is still conceivable, for either party, but the consensus has rightly shifted...
12 September 2023
What We're Worried About (And What We're Not)
We are not worried that the Magnificent Seven mega-cap stocks are distorting large-cap equity performance. Mega-cap leadership is hardly a new phenomenon. We’re worried that the labor market may not...
