13 October 2023
Bonds Are Great Again
After being in the bear camp, we have become bond bulls. Many investors have concluded that US monetary policy is not yet restrictive because employment has remained resilient. This is fallacious...
21 July 2023
Three Scenarios In Which The US Can Avoid A Recession
We are in the “This Time is Longer” camp rather than the “This Time is Different” camp, meaning that we expect the US to enter a recession, but later than most people are anticipating. Could we be...
13 April 2023
Macro Investors Are About To Make A Huge Mistake
US inflation is likely to fall significantly during the rest of the year, even as the unemployment rate remains near record-low levels. Equity investors will applaud this outcome because, to them, it...
