09 October 2023
All You Ever Wanted To Know About Excess Savings But Were Afraid To Ask
The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the household savings rate series sharply lower in its quinquennial comprehensive data update. Our estimate is more conservative than it previously appeared,...
12 September 2023
What We're Worried About (And What We're Not)
We are not worried that the Magnificent Seven mega-cap stocks are distorting large-cap equity performance. Mega-cap leadership is hardly a new phenomenon. We’re worried that the labor market may not...
17 July 2023
Recalibration
The process of upwardly revising consensus economic expectations and pushing back recession ETAs has begun but is not yet complete. The recalibration will ultimately prove to be self-limiting for...
